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基于气候因素的流行性感冒的流行预测研究
陈迪1; 卢朋1; 杨洪军2; 卢朋,杨洪军
Source Publication国际中医中药杂志
2013-09
Volume35Issue:9Pages:769-774
Abstract
流行性感冒(简称流感)作为一种长期威胁人类健康的流行性疾病,对其进行预测有利于
及时采取相应的应急措施,将影响和危害降到最低。目前,随着信息技术的发展,积累了大量关于气候与流感发病情况的数据。针对流行性疾病预测的研究已进行了近90年,提出了各种预测模型,不同的预测方法各有优劣。其中,将影响疾病发展的关键气候因素引入到预测模型当中将有利于提高预测的精度。综合现有的各类方法,主要可从两个方面提高预测的精度:①结合不同预测方法的优势进行有效整合;②必须考虑到流感的预测中应该根据地域的不同、病原体和传播方式的特性确定相关的气候因素或发掘相关因素。通过将关键相关因素应用到流感爆发的预测模型中,设计出更加合理、精确的预测方法。
Other Abstract
Epidemic influenza (flu)is a disease threatening the life of people for a long history. A 
precise forecast for the flu outbreak can warn and help health care providers to take measures to reduce the influences and harms in advance. At present,with the development of information technology, there have accumulated tremendous data of flu trends and climate information. With a history of 90 years researches about the forecast of flu trends, researchers have put forward different types of forecasting methods, and 
each of them has merits and demerits. Among these methods, those ones considering the key climate factors have higher precisions. Considering various methods atpresent, the prediction accuracy can be improved mainly from two aspects: on one hand, the forecast accuracy can be improved by effectively integrate the advantages of different models ; On the other hand, the prediction must take into account of the specific climate of an area, pathogens and the mode of transmission characteristics in order to determine the most 
relevant climate factors or other highly related factors with which to design a more reasonable and accurate prediction method. 
Keyword流行性感冒 预测 气候因素
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/11482
Collection综合信息系统研究中心
Corresponding Author卢朋,杨洪军
Affiliation1.中国科学院自动化研究所
2.中国中医科学院中药研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
陈迪,卢朋,杨洪军,等. 基于气候因素的流行性感冒的流行预测研究[J]. 国际中医中药杂志,2013,35(9):769-774.
APA 陈迪,卢朋,杨洪军,&卢朋,杨洪军.(2013).基于气候因素的流行性感冒的流行预测研究.国际中医中药杂志,35(9),769-774.
MLA 陈迪,et al."基于气候因素的流行性感冒的流行预测研究".国际中医中药杂志 35.9(2013):769-774.
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