Predicting Popularity of Forum Threads for Public Events Security
Kong, Qingchao; Mao, Wenji; Zeng, Daniel; Wang, Lei; Wenji Mao
2014
Conference NameIEEE Joint Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference (IEEE ISI 2014)
Source PublicationProceedings of IEEE Joint Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference (IEEE ISI 2014)
Conference Date2014-9-24
Conference Placethe Hague, the Netherlands
Abstract

Web user’s online interactive behavior with others often makes some user generated contents popular. The modeling and prediction of the popularity of online content are an important research issue for many key application domains. In this paper, we focus on one form of user generated content, forum threads, and their popularity prediction for public events security. To predict the popularity of forum threads, we first define the popularity prediction problem, and identify the dynamic factors that affect the popularity of forum threads. Based on the information of dynamic evolution at the early stage, we propose a popularity prediction algorithm which makes use of the locality property and combines multiple dynamic factors. The proposed algorithm is further evaluated using the Tianya forum dataset on the discussions of various public events. The experimental results show that, compared to the baseline methods, our method achieves relatively better performance in predicting the popularity of forum threads on public events security.

KeywordPopularity Of Online Content Modeling And Prediction Of Popularity Evolution Social Media Analytics
Document Type会议论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/11584
Collection复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_互联网大数据与信息安全
Corresponding AuthorWenji Mao
Affiliation1.中国科学院自动化研究所
2.中国科学院自动化研究所
3.中国科学院自动化研究所
4.天津大学
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Kong, Qingchao,Mao, Wenji,Zeng, Daniel,et al. Predicting Popularity of Forum Threads for Public Events Security[C],2014.
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