网络社区中核心群体模型及其影响力研究
王晓1,2; 曾轲3; 张新展3
2015-12
Conference Name第七届社会计算会议
Source Publication第七届社会计算会议
Conference Date2015.12.11-13
Conference Place福州,福建
Abstract核心群体将极大地影响网络社区中话题走势及参与者的行为倾向。为了准确地预测热点话题及发展趋势,本文提出了一种基于个体行为特征的核心群体模型。该模型通过计算参与人员影响力权重,并使用时间衰退因子进行处理,可有效的解决意见领袖影响力模型受到时域空间局限的问题;对社区中的核心群体的行为进行分析,可快速发现领域内的新生热点话题,推测参与群体的动态演化过程,进而预测话题发展趋势及参与群体行为倾向性。从天涯各大社区中抽取自2004年到2013年出现的关于油价讨论的相关主题,基于时序特征对比分析核心群体和意见领袖的差异,并通过核心群体的行为特征对领域内的话题动向和成长规模进行了预测。实验证明,核心群体能够十分有效的帮助引导和预测话题走向;而意见领袖往往会随着话题的变化而变化,并不具备推动新话题产生及预测话题发展的能力。
Other AbstractThe behavior of core-group participants in online communities are able to greatly impact the development of topic trend as well as the behavior tendency of the entire community participants. In order to accurately predict hot topics and their develop trend, this paper come up with a core-group model based on agent’s behavior features. This model uses time-decay factor to reprocess the influence of participants, thus can effectively reduce the impact of the limited time domain of opinion leaders. By tracking and analyzing the behavior of core-group participants, we can identify new topics in the observe field as soon as possible, infer the dynamic evolution of participants, as well as predict the development tendency of existed topics. We abstracted the oil price related topics from Tianya.cn during the past 9 years, compared the difference between core-group members and opinion leaders, and predicted the influence of core-group members and opinion leaders to the development of new topics and collective behavior. Experiment results show that core-group members can impressively help to guide and predict the topic tendency while opinion leaders often change with topics and do not have the ability to promote the emergency of new topics. 
Keyword核心群体 意见领袖 影响力权重 群体行为倾向性
Indexed By其他
Language中文
Document Type会议论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/11746
Collection复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_先进控制与自动化
Corresponding Author王晓
Affiliation1.中国科学院自动化研究所
2.青岛智能产业技术研究院
3.西安交通大学电子信息学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
王晓,曾轲,张新展. 网络社区中核心群体模型及其影响力研究[C],2015.
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