MODELING FIXED ODDS BETTING FOR FUTURE EVENT PREDICTION
Chen, Weiyun1; Li, Xin2; Zeng, Daniel3,4
2017-06-01
发表期刊MIS QUARTERLY
卷号41期号:2页码:645-+
文章类型Article
摘要Prediction markets provide a promising approach for future event prediction. Most existing prediction market approaches are based on auction mechanisms. Despite their theoretical appeal and success in various application settings, these mechanisms suffer from several major drawbacks. First, opinions from experts and amateurs are treated equally. Second, continuous attention from participants is assumed. Third, such mechanisms are subject to various forms of market manipulation. To alleviate these limitations, we propose to employ the classic fixed odds betting as an alternative prediction market mechanism. We build a structural model based on a belief-decision framework as the event probability estimator. This belief-decision framework models bettors' beliefs with mixed beta distributions and bettors' decisions with prospect theory. A maximum likelihood approach is applied to estimate the model parameters. We conducted experiments on three real-world betting datasets to evaluate our proposed approach. Experimental results show that fixed odds betting based prediction outperforms the reduced form models based on odds and betting results, and achieves a comparable performance with auction-based prediction markets. The results suggest the possibility of employing fixed odds betting as a prediction market in a variety of application contexts where the assumptions made by auction-based approaches do not hold.
关键词Prediction Market Fixed Odds Betting Crowd Intelligence Prospect Theory Decision Support
WOS标题词Science & Technology ; Social Sciences ; Technology
关键词[WOS]MARKET-EFFICIENCY ; DECISION-MAKING ; INFORMATION ; FOOTBALL ; UNCERTAINTY ; ECONOMICS ; FORECASTS ; ACCURACY
收录类别SCI ; SSCI
语种英语
项目资助者National Natural Science Foundation of China(71025001 ; Guang Dong Natural Science Foundation(2015A030313876) ; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China(CityU 11503115) ; Peak Discipline Construction Project of Education at East China Normal University ; 71621002 ; 71572169)
WOS研究方向Computer Science ; Information Science & Library Science ; Business & Economics
WOS类目Computer Science, Information Systems ; Information Science & Library Science ; Management
WOS记录号WOS:000401320400015
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/15107
专题复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_互联网大数据与信息安全
作者单位1.East China Normal Univ, Dept Educ Informat Technol, Fac Educ, Shanghai, Peoples R China
2.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Informat Syst, Coll Business, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
3.Univ Arizona, Dept Management Informat Syst, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
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Chen, Weiyun,Li, Xin,Zeng, Daniel. MODELING FIXED ODDS BETTING FOR FUTURE EVENT PREDICTION[J]. MIS QUARTERLY,2017,41(2):645-+.
APA Chen, Weiyun,Li, Xin,&Zeng, Daniel.(2017).MODELING FIXED ODDS BETTING FOR FUTURE EVENT PREDICTION.MIS QUARTERLY,41(2),645-+.
MLA Chen, Weiyun,et al."MODELING FIXED ODDS BETTING FOR FUTURE EVENT PREDICTION".MIS QUARTERLY 41.2(2017):645-+.
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