MODELING FIXED ODDS BETTING FOR FUTURE EVENT PREDICTION
Chen, Weiyun1; Li, Xin2; Zeng, Daniel3,4
Source PublicationMIS QUARTERLY
2017-06-01
Volume41Issue:2Pages:645-+
SubtypeArticle
AbstractPrediction markets provide a promising approach for future event prediction. Most existing prediction market approaches are based on auction mechanisms. Despite their theoretical appeal and success in various application settings, these mechanisms suffer from several major drawbacks. First, opinions from experts and amateurs are treated equally. Second, continuous attention from participants is assumed. Third, such mechanisms are subject to various forms of market manipulation. To alleviate these limitations, we propose to employ the classic fixed odds betting as an alternative prediction market mechanism. We build a structural model based on a belief-decision framework as the event probability estimator. This belief-decision framework models bettors' beliefs with mixed beta distributions and bettors' decisions with prospect theory. A maximum likelihood approach is applied to estimate the model parameters. We conducted experiments on three real-world betting datasets to evaluate our proposed approach. Experimental results show that fixed odds betting based prediction outperforms the reduced form models based on odds and betting results, and achieves a comparable performance with auction-based prediction markets. The results suggest the possibility of employing fixed odds betting as a prediction market in a variety of application contexts where the assumptions made by auction-based approaches do not hold.
KeywordPrediction Market Fixed Odds Betting Crowd Intelligence Prospect Theory Decision Support
WOS HeadingsScience & Technology ; Social Sciences ; Technology
WOS KeywordMARKET-EFFICIENCY ; DECISION-MAKING ; INFORMATION ; FOOTBALL ; UNCERTAINTY ; ECONOMICS ; FORECASTS ; ACCURACY
Indexed BySCI ; SSCI
Language英语
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China(71025001 ; Guang Dong Natural Science Foundation(2015A030313876) ; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China(CityU 11503115) ; Peak Discipline Construction Project of Education at East China Normal University ; 71621002 ; 71572169)
WOS Research AreaComputer Science ; Information Science & Library Science ; Business & Economics
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Information Systems ; Information Science & Library Science ; Management
WOS IDWOS:000401320400015
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/15107
Collection复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_互联网大数据与信息安全
Affiliation1.East China Normal Univ, Dept Educ Informat Technol, Fac Educ, Shanghai, Peoples R China
2.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Informat Syst, Coll Business, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
3.Univ Arizona, Dept Management Informat Syst, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Chen, Weiyun,Li, Xin,Zeng, Daniel. MODELING FIXED ODDS BETTING FOR FUTURE EVENT PREDICTION[J]. MIS QUARTERLY,2017,41(2):645-+.
APA Chen, Weiyun,Li, Xin,&Zeng, Daniel.(2017).MODELING FIXED ODDS BETTING FOR FUTURE EVENT PREDICTION.MIS QUARTERLY,41(2),645-+.
MLA Chen, Weiyun,et al."MODELING FIXED ODDS BETTING FOR FUTURE EVENT PREDICTION".MIS QUARTERLY 41.2(2017):645-+.
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Chen, Weiyun]'s Articles
[Li, Xin]'s Articles
[Zeng, Daniel]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Chen, Weiyun]'s Articles
[Li, Xin]'s Articles
[Zeng, Daniel]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Chen, Weiyun]'s Articles
[Li, Xin]'s Articles
[Zeng, Daniel]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.