甲流阳性率抽样精度估计与样本量控制策略
曹志冬1; 曾大军1; 王全意2; 王小莉2; 刘加奇1
Source Publication系统工程理论与实践
2015
Volume35Issue:10Pages:2467-2472
Abstract基于2009年8月3日~11月14日北京市甲型H1N1病例的阳性率抽样数据,计算得到了后验精度估计. 实验结果表明,在置信水平1-α=0.95的条件下,北京市甲型H1N1阳性率抽样检测的绝对误差均没有超过0.1,处于可控水平。甲流疫情早期,抽样检测的相对误差较大,37周以前的相对误差大于0.5. 随着疫情发展,相对误差逐步降低,估计结果趋于可靠,42周后的相对误差小于0.2. 最后,针对阳性病例样本检测的问题,提出了基于精度控制的最优样本量控制策略,探索了不同条件下边际样本量的变化规律,分析了阳性率与绝对误差组合控制下的最优样本量估计.
Other AbstractUsing the data in the influenza A H1N1 positive rate of sampling from August 3, 2009 to November 14, Beijing, we estimated the precision of absoluate error and relative error. During the epidemic, absoluate error of the H1N1 positive rate was less than 0.1 under the confidence level of 1-α=0.95, this erros was at a controllable level. The relative error of the H1N1 positive rate was large at the early phase of influenza A H1N1 transmission, >0.5 before 37 weeks. With the development of the epidemic, the relative error decreased gradually, which means that the result tends to be a relable estimate. The relative error was less than 0.2 after 42 weeks. Final, this paper provided a sample size planning based on precision control for samling test of positive cases. We argued the marginal changes in sample size with a series of conditions. Optimal sample sizes were estimated under different combinations of positive rate and absoluate error
Keyword精度估计 样本量 样本量策略 抽样检测 阳性率
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/20191
Collection复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_互联网大数据与信息安全
Affiliation1.复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室,中国科学院自动化研究所,中国科学院
2.北京市疾病预防控制中心
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
曹志冬,曾大军,王全意,等. 甲流阳性率抽样精度估计与样本量控制策略[J]. 系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(10):2467-2472.
APA 曹志冬,曾大军,王全意,王小莉,&刘加奇.(2015).甲流阳性率抽样精度估计与样本量控制策略.系统工程理论与实践,35(10),2467-2472.
MLA 曹志冬,et al."甲流阳性率抽样精度估计与样本量控制策略".系统工程理论与实践 35.10(2015):2467-2472.
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