A preliminary research of prediction markets based on blockchain powered smart contracts
Shuai Wang; Xiaochun Ni; Yong Yuan; Xiao Wang; Liwei Ouyang; Fei-Yue Wang
2018
Conference NameThe 2018 IEEE International Conference on Blockchain (Blockchain-2018)
Conference Date30 Jul.- 3 Aug., 2018.
Conference PlaceHalifax, Canada
Abstract
; Prediction markets are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, there by yielding prices that can be interpreted as market aggregated forecasts. Past studies have shown that the prediction markets can provide accurate forecasts, sometimes better than sophisticated statistical tools. Due to their advantages, prediction markets have been widely used in the prediction of elections, project management, product quality, and impact of events. However, prediction markets also have some limitations, e.g., poor anonymity and limited market liquidity. In this paper, we propose to apply blockchain powered smart contracts to the prediction markets. First, we give a comprehensive overview on the prediction markets, including their theoretical basis, classification and applications. Second, we present how to design prediction markets based on smart contracts. Then, the algorithm of contracts implementation is proposed. Finally, in order to verify the effectiveness of the algorithm, an intraenterprise prediction market is built based on a private blockchain. The experimental results show that the market can make accurate prediction for a particular event. In addition, the autonomy, self-sufficiency, and decentralization characteristics of blockchain make the prediction markets more efficient and robust.
Indexed ByEI
Language英语
Document Type会议论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/21814
Collection复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_先进控制与自动化
AffiliationChinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Inst Automat, Beijing 100864, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Shuai Wang,Xiaochun Ni,Yong Yuan,et al. A preliminary research of prediction markets based on blockchain powered smart contracts[C],2018.
Files in This Item: Download All
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
A Preliminary Resear(559KB)会议论文 开放获取CC BY-NC-SAView Download
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Shuai Wang]'s Articles
[Xiaochun Ni]'s Articles
[Yong Yuan]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Shuai Wang]'s Articles
[Xiaochun Ni]'s Articles
[Yong Yuan]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Shuai Wang]'s Articles
[Xiaochun Ni]'s Articles
[Yong Yuan]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: A Preliminary Research of Prediction Markets Based on Blockchain Powered Smart Contracts.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.