Short-term cloud coverage prediction using the ARIMA time series model
Wang, Yu1,2,3; Wang, Chunheng1; Shi, Cunzhao1; Xiao, Baihua1
2018
发表期刊REMOTE SENSING LETTERS
卷号9期号:3页码:274-283
文章类型Article
摘要In view of the important role of cloud coverage on the solar (energy) irradiance, the total cloud coverage prediction based on groundbased cloud images is studied in this paper. In traditional prediction techniques, the correlation between cloud coverage over continue time is always neglected. Thus, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model is used to predict the short-term cloud coverage. Experimental results on a collected time series database of cloud coverage computed from ground-based cloud images show that the correlation information of time series is useful for cloud coverage prediction. Additionally, the ARIMA model gains a superior prediction performance for forecasts of one minute or longer 20 and 30 minutes. We are able to predict the cloud coverage with an approximate error of 5%, 7%, and 9% for 1, 5, and 20 and 30 minute forecasts, respectively. Furthermore, we found that there are different error rates of predictions for different cloud coverage intervals. High cloud coverage always suffers from a higher error rate.
WOS标题词Science & Technology ; Technology
DOI10.1080/2150704X.2017.1418992
关键词[WOS]POINT CLOUDINESS ; SKY IMAGER ; CLASSIFICATION ; SEGMENTATION ; OPTIMIZATION ; IRRADIANCE ; SATELLITE ; RADIATION ; SURFACE
收录类别SCI
语种英语
项目资助者National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)(61531019 ; 61503228 ; 61601462 ; 71621002)
WOS研究方向Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
WOS类目Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
WOS记录号WOS:000428631900009
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/22008
专题复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_影像分析与机器视觉
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Shanxi Univ, Sch Software, Taiyuan, Shanxi, Peoples R China
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Wang, Yu,Wang, Chunheng,Shi, Cunzhao,et al. Short-term cloud coverage prediction using the ARIMA time series model[J]. REMOTE SENSING LETTERS,2018,9(3):274-283.
APA Wang, Yu,Wang, Chunheng,Shi, Cunzhao,&Xiao, Baihua.(2018).Short-term cloud coverage prediction using the ARIMA time series model.REMOTE SENSING LETTERS,9(3),274-283.
MLA Wang, Yu,et al."Short-term cloud coverage prediction using the ARIMA time series model".REMOTE SENSING LETTERS 9.3(2018):274-283.
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