A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China

doi:10.1080/21645515.2019.1705692

CASIA OpenIR > 多模态人工智能系统全国重点实验室 > 互联网大数据与信息安全

	A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China
	Zhang, Yi 1,2,3; Muscatello, David J.3; Cao, Zhidong4 ; Chughtai, Abrar A.3; Costantino, Valentina 3; Zhang, Daitao 1,2; Yang, Peng 1,2; Wang, Quanyi 1,2; MacIntyre, C. Raina 5,6,7
发表期刊	HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS
ISSN	2164-5515
	2020-01-26
页码	6
通讯作者	Wang, Quanyi(bjcdcxm@126.com)
摘要	Background: Children aged under 5 years are particularly vulnerable to influenza infection. In this study, we aim to estimate the number and incidence of influenza among young children and estimate the impact of childhood vaccination in different scenarios from 2013/14 to 2016/17 seasons. Methods: The number and incidence rate of influenza infections among children aged under 5 years in Beijing was estimated by scaling up observed surveillance data. Then, we used a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery (SEIR) model to reproduce the weekly number of influenza infections estimated in Beijing during the study seasons, and to estimate the number and proportion of influenza-attributed medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) averted by vaccination in each season. Finally, we evaluated the impact of alternative childhood vaccination programs with different coverage and speed of vaccine distribution. Results: The estimated average annual incidence of influenza in children aged under 5 years was 33.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.5%, 47.2%) during the study period. With the actual coverage during the included seasons at around 2.9%, an average of 3.9% (95%CI: 3.5%, 4.4%) I-MAARI was reduced compared to a no-vaccination scenario. Reaching 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% and 100% vaccine coverage would lead to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 25.3%, 42.7%, 51.9%, 57.0%, 65.3% and 71.2%. At 20% coverage scenario, an average of 28.8% I-MAARI will be prevented if intensive vaccination implemented in 2 months since the vaccine released. Conclusion: In Beijing, the introduction of a program for vaccinating young children, even at relatively low vaccine coverage rates, would considerably reduce I-MAARI, particularly if the vaccines can be quickly delivered.
关键词	Influenza vaccination model children China
DOI	10.1080/21645515.2019.1705692
关键词[WOS]	SEASONAL INFLUENZA ; BURDEN ; HOSPITALIZATION ; ENGLAND
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research[2018-1-1012] ; NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence[APP1107393] ; Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research[2018-1-1012] ; NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence[APP1107393]
项目资助者	Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research ; NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence
WOS研究方向	Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology ; Immunology
WOS类目	Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology ; Immunology
WOS记录号	WOS:000511724900001
出版者	TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
引用统计	被引频次：4[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/28603
专题	多模态人工智能系统全国重点实验室_互联网大数据与信息安全
通讯作者	Wang, Quanyi
作者单位	1.Beijing Municipal Ctr Dis Prevent & Control, Inst Infect Dis & Endem Dis Control, 16 Hepingli Middle St, Beijing 100013, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Res Ctr Prevent Med, 16 Hepingli Middle St, Beijing 100013, Peoples R China 3.Univ New South Wales, Sch Publ Hlth & Community Med, Sydney, NSW, Australia 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Univ New South Wales, Fac Med, Kirby Inst, Sydney, NSW, Australia 6.Arizona State Univ, Coll Publ Serv & Community Solut, Phoenix, AZ USA 7.Arizona State Univ, Coll Hlth Solut, Phoenix, AZ USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Yi,Muscatello, David J.,Cao, Zhidong,et al. A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China[J]. HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS,2020:6.
APA	Zhang, Yi.,Muscatello, David J..,Cao, Zhidong.,Chughtai, Abrar A..,Costantino, Valentina.,...&MacIntyre, C. Raina.(2020).A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China.HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS,6.
MLA	Zhang, Yi,et al."A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China".HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS (2020):6.