CASIA OpenIR
A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China
Zhang, Yi1,2,3; Muscatello, David J.3; Cao, Zhidong4; Chughtai, Abrar A.3; Costantino, Valentina3; Zhang, Daitao1,2; Yang, Peng1,2; Wang, Quanyi1,2; MacIntyre, C. Raina5,6,7
Source PublicationHUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS
ISSN2164-5515
2020-01-26
Pages6
Corresponding AuthorWang, Quanyi(bjcdcxm@126.com)
AbstractBackground: Children aged under 5 years are particularly vulnerable to influenza infection. In this study, we aim to estimate the number and incidence of influenza among young children and estimate the impact of childhood vaccination in different scenarios from 2013/14 to 2016/17 seasons. Methods: The number and incidence rate of influenza infections among children aged under 5 years in Beijing was estimated by scaling up observed surveillance data. Then, we used a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery (SEIR) model to reproduce the weekly number of influenza infections estimated in Beijing during the study seasons, and to estimate the number and proportion of influenza-attributed medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) averted by vaccination in each season. Finally, we evaluated the impact of alternative childhood vaccination programs with different coverage and speed of vaccine distribution. Results: The estimated average annual incidence of influenza in children aged under 5 years was 33.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.5%, 47.2%) during the study period. With the actual coverage during the included seasons at around 2.9%, an average of 3.9% (95%CI: 3.5%, 4.4%) I-MAARI was reduced compared to a no-vaccination scenario. Reaching 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% and 100% vaccine coverage would lead to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 25.3%, 42.7%, 51.9%, 57.0%, 65.3% and 71.2%. At 20% coverage scenario, an average of 28.8% I-MAARI will be prevented if intensive vaccination implemented in 2 months since the vaccine released. Conclusion: In Beijing, the introduction of a program for vaccinating young children, even at relatively low vaccine coverage rates, would considerably reduce I-MAARI, particularly if the vaccines can be quickly delivered.
KeywordInfluenza vaccination model children China
DOI10.1080/21645515.2019.1705692
WOS KeywordSEASONAL INFLUENZA ; BURDEN ; HOSPITALIZATION ; ENGLAND
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectCapital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research[2018-1-1012] ; NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence[APP1107393] ; Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research[2018-1-1012] ; NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence[APP1107393]
Funding OrganizationCapital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research ; NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence
WOS Research AreaBiotechnology & Applied Microbiology ; Immunology
WOS SubjectBiotechnology & Applied Microbiology ; Immunology
WOS IDWOS:000511724900001
PublisherTAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/28603
Collection中国科学院自动化研究所
Corresponding AuthorWang, Quanyi
Affiliation1.Beijing Municipal Ctr Dis Prevent & Control, Inst Infect Dis & Endem Dis Control, 16 Hepingli Middle St, Beijing 100013, Peoples R China
2.Beijing Res Ctr Prevent Med, 16 Hepingli Middle St, Beijing 100013, Peoples R China
3.Univ New South Wales, Sch Publ Hlth & Community Med, Sydney, NSW, Australia
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Univ New South Wales, Fac Med, Kirby Inst, Sydney, NSW, Australia
6.Arizona State Univ, Coll Publ Serv & Community Solut, Phoenix, AZ USA
7.Arizona State Univ, Coll Hlth Solut, Phoenix, AZ USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Yi,Muscatello, David J.,Cao, Zhidong,et al. A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China[J]. HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS,2020:6.
APA Zhang, Yi.,Muscatello, David J..,Cao, Zhidong.,Chughtai, Abrar A..,Costantino, Valentina.,...&MacIntyre, C. Raina.(2020).A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China.HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS,6.
MLA Zhang, Yi,et al."A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China".HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS (2020):6.
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