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A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China | |
Zhang, Yi1,2,3; Muscatello, David J.3; Cao, Zhidong4; Chughtai, Abrar A.3; Costantino, Valentina3; Zhang, Daitao1,2; Yang, Peng1,2; Wang, Quanyi1,2; MacIntyre, C. Raina5,6,7 | |
发表期刊 | HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS |
ISSN | 2164-5515 |
2020-01-26 | |
页码 | 6 |
通讯作者 | Wang, Quanyi(bjcdcxm@126.com) |
摘要 | Background: Children aged under 5 years are particularly vulnerable to influenza infection. In this study, we aim to estimate the number and incidence of influenza among young children and estimate the impact of childhood vaccination in different scenarios from 2013/14 to 2016/17 seasons. Methods: The number and incidence rate of influenza infections among children aged under 5 years in Beijing was estimated by scaling up observed surveillance data. Then, we used a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery (SEIR) model to reproduce the weekly number of influenza infections estimated in Beijing during the study seasons, and to estimate the number and proportion of influenza-attributed medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) averted by vaccination in each season. Finally, we evaluated the impact of alternative childhood vaccination programs with different coverage and speed of vaccine distribution. Results: The estimated average annual incidence of influenza in children aged under 5 years was 33.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.5%, 47.2%) during the study period. With the actual coverage during the included seasons at around 2.9%, an average of 3.9% (95%CI: 3.5%, 4.4%) I-MAARI was reduced compared to a no-vaccination scenario. Reaching 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% and 100% vaccine coverage would lead to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 25.3%, 42.7%, 51.9%, 57.0%, 65.3% and 71.2%. At 20% coverage scenario, an average of 28.8% I-MAARI will be prevented if intensive vaccination implemented in 2 months since the vaccine released. Conclusion: In Beijing, the introduction of a program for vaccinating young children, even at relatively low vaccine coverage rates, would considerably reduce I-MAARI, particularly if the vaccines can be quickly delivered. |
关键词 | Influenza vaccination model children China |
DOI | 10.1080/21645515.2019.1705692 |
关键词[WOS] | SEASONAL INFLUENZA ; BURDEN ; HOSPITALIZATION ; ENGLAND |
收录类别 | SCI |
语种 | 英语 |
资助项目 | NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence[APP1107393] ; Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research[2018-1-1012] ; Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research[2018-1-1012] ; NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence[APP1107393] |
项目资助者 | Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research ; NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence |
WOS研究方向 | Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology ; Immunology |
WOS类目 | Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology ; Immunology |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000511724900001 |
出版者 | TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/28603 |
专题 | 多模态人工智能系统全国重点实验室_互联网大数据与信息安全 |
通讯作者 | Wang, Quanyi |
作者单位 | 1.Beijing Municipal Ctr Dis Prevent & Control, Inst Infect Dis & Endem Dis Control, 16 Hepingli Middle St, Beijing 100013, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Res Ctr Prevent Med, 16 Hepingli Middle St, Beijing 100013, Peoples R China 3.Univ New South Wales, Sch Publ Hlth & Community Med, Sydney, NSW, Australia 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Univ New South Wales, Fac Med, Kirby Inst, Sydney, NSW, Australia 6.Arizona State Univ, Coll Publ Serv & Community Solut, Phoenix, AZ USA 7.Arizona State Univ, Coll Hlth Solut, Phoenix, AZ USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Yi,Muscatello, David J.,Cao, Zhidong,et al. A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China[J]. HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS,2020:6. |
APA | Zhang, Yi.,Muscatello, David J..,Cao, Zhidong.,Chughtai, Abrar A..,Costantino, Valentina.,...&MacIntyre, C. Raina.(2020).A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China.HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS,6. |
MLA | Zhang, Yi,et al."A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China".HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS (2020):6. |
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