Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong

doi:10.1063/5.0123870

	Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong
	Cheng, Weibin 1,2; Zhou, Hanchu 2,3; Ye, Yang 2; Chen, Yifan 2; Jing, Fengshi 4; Cao, Zhidong5,6 ; Zeng, Daniel Dajun5,6 ; Zhang, Qingpeng 2,7,8
发表期刊	CHAOS
ISSN	1054-1500
	2023
卷号	33 期号:1 页码:8
通讯作者	Zeng, Daniel Dajun(dajun.zeng@ia.ac.cn) ; Zhang, Qingpeng(qingpeng.zhang@cityu.edu.hk)
摘要	The accumulation of susceptible populations for respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) when COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were in place might pose a greater risk of future RID outbreaks. We examined the timing and magnitude of RID resurgence after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs and assessed the burdens on the health system. We proposed the Threshold-based Control Method (TCM) to identify data-driven solutions to maintain the resilience of the health system by re-introducing NPIs when the number of severe infections reaches a threshold. There will be outbreaks of all RIDs with staggered peak times after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs. Such a large-scale resurgence of RID patients will impose a significant risk of overwhelming the health system. With a strict NPI strategy, a TCM-initiated threshold of 600 severe infections can ensure a sufficient supply of hospital beds for all hospitalized severely infected patients. The proposed TCM identifies effective dynamic NPIs, which facilitate future NPI relaxation policymaking.
DOI	10.1063/5.0123870
关键词[WOS]	PNEUMONIA REQUIRING HOSPITALIZATION ; CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 ; NONPHARMACEUTICAL INTERVENTIONS ; SYNCYTIAL VIRUS ; INFLUENZA ; IMPACT ; DYNAMICS
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China[11218221] ; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China[C7154-20GF] ; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China[C7151-20GF] ; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China[C1143-20GF]
项目资助者	Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
WOS研究方向	Mathematics ; Physics
WOS类目	Mathematics, Applied ; Physics, Mathematical
WOS记录号	WOS:000917936100004
出版者	AIP Publishing
引用统计	被引频次：2[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/51432
专题	舆论大数据科学与技术应用联合实验室
通讯作者	Zeng, Daniel Dajun; Zhang, Qingpeng
作者单位	1.Guangdong Second Prov Gen Hosp, Inst Healthcare Artificial Intelligence Applicat, Guangzhou 510317, Peoples R China 2.City Univ Hong Kong, Sch Data Sci, Hong Kong 999077, Peoples R China 3.Cent South Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat Engn, Changsha 410075, Peoples R China 4.Univ North Carolina Chapel Hill, Sch Med, UNC Project China, UNC Global, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 6.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Artificial Intelligence, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 7.City Univ Hong Kong, Shenzhen Res Inst, Shenzhen 518057, Peoples R China 8.Univ Hong Kong, LKS Fac Med, Dept Pharmacol & Pharm, Hong Kong 999077, Peoples R China
通讯作者单位	中国科学院自动化研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cheng, Weibin,Zhou, Hanchu,Ye, Yang,et al. Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong[J]. CHAOS,2023,33(1):8.
APA	Cheng, Weibin.,Zhou, Hanchu.,Ye, Yang.,Chen, Yifan.,Jing, Fengshi.,...&Zhang, Qingpeng.(2023).Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong.CHAOS,33(1),8.
MLA	Cheng, Weibin,et al."Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong".CHAOS 33.1(2023):8.