Analysing monkeypox epidemic drivers: Policy simulation and multi-index modelling across 39 nations

doi:10.7189/jogh.14.04037

	Analysing monkeypox epidemic drivers: Policy simulation and multi-index modelling across 39 nations
	Lin, Mengxuan 1; Xin, Yingrong 2; Wang, Jiaojiao3 ; Nie, Pengyuan 1; Yan, Qunjiao 1; Wang, Ligui 2,5; Wang, Lei 1,4
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF GLOBAL HEALTH
ISSN	2047-2978
	2024
卷号	14 页码:12
通讯作者	Wang, Ligui(wangligui1983@126.com) ; Wang, Lei(wangleienjoy@163.com)
摘要	Background This study aimed to analyse the drivers of the monkeypox (Mpox) epidemic and policy simulation to support health care policies against the Mpox epidemic. Methods We established a three -round selection mechanism for 164 factors using Lasso and negative binomial regression to investigate the correlation between significant drivers and the cumulative confirmed cases of Mpox. Policy simulation for each driver was evaluated, and the varying effects of implementation at different times were examined. Results HIV/AIDS prevalence and air transport passengers carried were significant determinants of the risk of the Mpox epidemic across various countries, with regression coefficients of 1.417 and 0.766, respectively. A decrease in HIV/AIDS prevalence by 10, 20, 30, and 40% corresponded to reductions in the number of Mpox cases by 6.28, 6.55, 6.87, and 7.26%, respectively. Similarly, 20, 40, 60, and 80% travel restrictions led to reductions in Mpox cases by 7.16, 15.63, 26.28%, and 41.46%, respectively. Controlling air transport passengers carried in the first month could postpone outbreak onset by 0.5-2.0 months. Conclusions Mpox prevention and control policies should primarily focus on travel restrictions during high disease -risk periods and flight suspensions from high -risk nations in combination with regular HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment strategies.
DOI	10.7189/jogh.14.04037
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2022YFC2602304] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72074209]
项目资助者	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
WOS研究方向	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS类目	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS记录号	WOS:001160839500001
出版者	INT SOC GLOBAL HEALTH
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/55572
专题	舆论大数据科学与技术应用联合实验室
通讯作者	Wang, Ligui; Wang, Lei
作者单位	1.Acad Mil Sci Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Acad Mil Med Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Multimodal Artificial Intelligence S, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Acad Mil Sci Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Acad Mil Med Sci, 27 Taiping Rd, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, 20 Dongdajie St, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lin, Mengxuan,Xin, Yingrong,Wang, Jiaojiao,et al. Analysing monkeypox epidemic drivers: Policy simulation and multi-index modelling across 39 nations[J]. JOURNAL OF GLOBAL HEALTH,2024,14:12.
APA	Lin, Mengxuan.,Xin, Yingrong.,Wang, Jiaojiao.,Nie, Pengyuan.,Yan, Qunjiao.,...&Wang, Lei.(2024).Analysing monkeypox epidemic drivers: Policy simulation and multi-index modelling across 39 nations.JOURNAL OF GLOBAL HEALTH,14,12.
MLA	Lin, Mengxuan,et al."Analysing monkeypox epidemic drivers: Policy simulation and multi-index modelling across 39 nations".JOURNAL OF GLOBAL HEALTH 14(2024):12.