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突发公共事件对交通系统的影响分析及对策研究
Alternative TitleAnalyzing and Managing Transportation Systems under Public Emergency
吕宜生
Subtype工学博士
Thesis Advisor王飞跃 ; 汤淑明
2010-05-29
Degree Grantor中国科学院研究生院
Place of Conferral中国科学院自动化研究所
Degree Discipline控制理论与控制工程
Keyword突发事件 Acp 人工交通系统 计算实验设计 平行系统 应急交通 应急疏散 行为分析 Public Emergency Acp Artificial Transportation Systems Computational Experiments Parallel Systems Emergency Transportation Emergency Evacuation Behavior Analysis
Abstract近年来,突发公共事件频繁发生,给人类生产和生活带来巨大的影响。交通系统在处置突发公共事件过程中起着重要的作用,所以,如果不积极、有效地管理交通系统,那么就不能对突发公共事件做出快速响应。而突发公共事件下人员的行为对整个应急交通管理工作又有着重要的影响,因此本文从突发公共事件下人员的行为入手,研究突发公共事件对交通系统的影响及相应对策。 本文以复杂系统建模、分析、管理与控制的新理论——ACP,即:人工系统、计算实验、平行执行(Artificial Systems、Computational Experiments、Parallel Execution,ACP)为指导,研究人工人口生成算法和突发公共事件下人员的交通行为特点,设计并开发面向突发公共事件的人工交通系统,利用该系统依据计算实验设计理论深入研究突发公共事件下人员交通行为对交通系统的影响,从行为干预的角度提出应急交通管理对策。本文的主要工作包括以下几个方面: 第一,突发公共事件下应急交通的综述研究。介绍突发公共事件的定义,归纳总结应急环境下人员的行为、应急交通疏散建模和应急交通疏散控制等已有研究成果,并分析其不足之处。 第二,人工人口生成研究。当人口统计特性发生变化时,传统的人口合成方法将不适用。针对该问题,本文提出了基于遗传进化思想的人工人口生成算法,该算法主要由确定人工人口属性、编码人工人口属性成串、随机生成初始人工人口种群和按遗传进化规则更新人工人口四个步骤组成。 第三,面向突发公共事件的人工交通系统的设计与开发。本文在作者所在实验室已开发的人工交通系统原型——TransWorld基础上,针对突发公共事件这一特定条件,设计并实现应用于突发公共事件应急交通管理与控制的计算实验平台,该平台考虑了突发公共事件的表示、突发公共事件下人员的行为、突发公共事件下背景交通流的生成等。 第四,计算实验设计理论与方法的研究。为合理地安排计算实验,保证计算实验结果处理与分析的科学有效性,本文对计算实验设计理论和方法进行了研究,具体包括:计算实验的由来及其定义,计算实验的一般过程,计算实验与计算仿真以及计算实验与实际实验的异同点,计算实验设计的类型及其要遵守的基本原则,计算实验设计中样本量的特性曲线确定法和区间估计确定法,以及比较计算实验方法和优化计算实验设计方法等。 第五,突发公共事件下人员的交通行为分析及干预控制。本文利用作者开发的面向突发公共事件的人工交通系统开展计算实验,首先研究单个行为因素对应急交通疏散效率的影响,具体包括疏散者逃离时刻选择、安全地点选择、路线选择、管理者发布交通信息时间间隔等四个因素;引入正交实验设计方法,研究疏散者逃离时刻分布、安全地点选择、依据实时道路交通状况信息选择最短路的逃生者的比例三个因素的取值水平对应急交通疏散效率的影响,并给出这三个因素取值水平的最佳组合。 第六,平行系统方法在应急交通管理中的初步应用。为了说明平行系统方法在应急交通管理中的应用,本文引入广义平行系统的概念,给出了平行应急交通管理系统的框架及模式,构建了两个面...
Other AbstractIn recent years, public emergencies have occurred frequently and caused huge lost of human production and life. Transportation systems play an important role in emergency response. Without active and effective management of transportation systems, we will not be able to quickly respond to public emergencies. As human behavior under public emergencies has great impact on emergency transportation management, this dissertation studies public emergency’s impact on transportation systems and corresponding strategies from the perspective of human behavior. This dissertation is based on the ACP (Artificial Systems, Computational Experiments, Parallel Execution) theory which is a new theory on modeling, analyzing, managing and controlling complex systems. In this dissertation we first study the artificial population generation method and human traffic behavior under public emergencies. Then, a prototype of artificial transportation systems for emergency (ATS-E) is developed. The impact of human behavior on transportation systems under public emergencies are studied based on the ATS-E and computational experiment design theory, and some emergency transportation management policies are proposed from the standpoint of human behavior intervention. The main work of this dissertation is as follows. Firstly, we introduce definitions of public emergency and give a comprehensive literature review on human behavior under public emergencies, emergency evacuation modeling and emergency evacuation control. Secondly, we present our study on artificial population generation. As the traditional population synthesis methods are not suitable under the condition that population statistical characteristics change, this dissertation proposes a new artificial population generation algorithm. The algorithm is based on genetic and evolutionary concepts, and contains four steps, namely, determining artificial population properties, coding artificial population properties, generating initial artificial population at random and updating artificial population in accordance with genetic and evolutionary rules. Thirdly, a computational platform specifically for emergency, ATS-E, is developed based on TransWorld, an existing artificial transportation system prototype developed in our lab. The ATS-E takes into account the representation of public emergencies, human behavior and background traffic flow generation. Fourthly, in order to obtain valid and objective results, this dissertation st...
shelfnumXWLW1473
Other Identifier200718014628013
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/6254
Collection毕业生_博士学位论文
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
吕宜生. 突发公共事件对交通系统的影响分析及对策研究[D]. 中国科学院自动化研究所. 中国科学院研究生院,2010.
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