| 英文摘要 | In the 21st century, various types of public emergencies have occurred frequently and caused huge impacts on human production and lives. Public emergencies have a number of peculiarities, such as harmfulness, uncertainty, information limitation and time limitation. They not only cause huge losses of life and property, but also affect social stability, especially endanger national security. Therefore, in order to prevent the occurrence of public emergencies effectively and control the losses and effects caused by public emergencies, the study of emergency management and the establishment of a reliable emergency response system are very necessary. The thesis is guided by the ACP approach (Artificial Systems, Computational Experiments, Parallel Execution) which is a new theory on modeling, analyzing, managing and controlling complex system, taking the chemical emergency management as the entry point. The three key problems of chemical emergency management are studied based on the idea and framework of Parallel Emergency Management. The main work of the thesis is as follows. Firstly, definitions of public emergencies and emergency management are introduced. A comprehensive review on emergency early-warning and emergency response plans evaluation is presented. Secondly, the system of emergencies is a complex system including a number of factors, such as equipment, human, society, enviorment, etc. Based on the framework of Parallel Emergency Management, the Artificial Emergency Early-warning System is established by time fuzzy Petri Nets and Matlab’s Stateflow module. The system adds human behavior factor in the traditional early-warning diagnostic rules and forms the causal chain from human behavior to productive abnormity for the abnormal reasoning and spreading. Thirdly, in order to ensure the anticipative effect of emergency response plans, the plans are evaluated before they are executed and during their executing respectively. The complexity of plans is defined because the complicacy of plans will affect human recognition even human behavior. The reliability of plans is defined because human with different attributes will produce different behaviors influencing the implementary effects of plans. The Artificial Emergency Response Plans Complexity Evaluation System is established by the method of transforming from the plan text to graph and the concept of graphical information entropy, which can realize the assessment of complexity. The Artificial Eme... |
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