Red tide time series forecasting by combining ARIMA and deep belief network

doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2017.03.027

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	Red tide time series forecasting by combining ARIMA and deep belief network
	Qin, Mengjiao 1; Li, Zhihang 2; Du, Zhenhong 1,3
发表期刊	KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS
	2017-06-01
卷号	125 页码:39-52
文章类型	Article
摘要	The red tide occurs frequently in recent years. The process of the growth, reproduction, extinction of the red tide algal has a complex nonlinear relationship with the environmental factors. The environmental factors have characteristics including time continuity and spatial heterogeneity. These characteristics make it arduous to forecast red tide. This paper mainly analyzes the related factors of the red tide disasters. Based on the strong forecasting ability of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the powerful expression ability of Deep Belief Network (DBN) on nonlinear relationships, a hybrid model which combines ARIMA and DBN is proposed for red tide forecasting. The corresponding ARIMA model is built for each environmental factor in different coastal areas to describe the temporal correlation and spatial heterogeneity. The DBN serves to capture the complex nonlinear relationship between the environmental factors and the red tide biomass, and then realizes the warning of red tide in advance. Furthermore, Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is introduced to enhance the speed of model training. Finally, ship monitoring data collected in Zhoushan coastal area and Wenzhou coastal area during 2008-2014 is used as the experimental dataset. The proposed ARIMA-DBN model is applied to forecasting red tide. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a good forecast of red tide. (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V.
关键词	Red Tide Forecasting Arima Dbn Pso Arima-dbn
WOS标题词	Science & Technology ; Technology
DOI	10.1016/j.knosys.2017.03.027
关键词[WOS]	HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOMS ; SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES ; HYBRID ARIMA ; MODEL ; PREDICTION ; OPTIMIZATION ; REGRESSION ; RISK
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
项目资助者	Public Science and Technology Research Funds' Projects(201305012 ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities from Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China(2016XZZX004-02) ; 201505003)
WOS研究方向	Computer Science
WOS类目	Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
WOS记录号	WOS:000401220100004
引用统计	被引频次：127[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/15104
专题	智能感知与计算研究中心
作者单位	1.Zhejiang Univ, Sch Earth Sci, Hangzhou 310027, Zhejiang, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, Ctr Res Intelligent Percept & Comp, Natl Lab Pattern Recognit, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Zhejiang Prov Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Hangzhou 310028, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qin, Mengjiao,Li, Zhihang,Du, Zhenhong. Red tide time series forecasting by combining ARIMA and deep belief network[J]. KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS,2017,125:39-52.
APA	Qin, Mengjiao,Li, Zhihang,&Du, Zhenhong.(2017).Red tide time series forecasting by combining ARIMA and deep belief network.KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS,125,39-52.
MLA	Qin, Mengjiao,et al."Red tide time series forecasting by combining ARIMA and deep belief network".KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS 125(2017):39-52.