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决策系统广义模型化与经济信息系统设计方法研究
薛玉炜
1988-02-01
学位类型工学博士
中文摘要经济的改革和开放,对我国的决策模式与决策方法提出了一个新的挑战,在这种新形 势下如何使用科学的方法和依据有效地支持社会经济系统中的决策者进行有效的决策便成 为了一个具有重大现实意义的课题。由于在决策系统中,决策者是作为主动行为者参于系 统的决策活动,因此,决策活动是一项十分复杂的活动。当考虑人的主动因素时,或者说 为了有效支持决策而使关于决策者的假定更接近实际时,以往关于决策的理论和方法便有 着明显的局限性。国家正在建设的经济信息系统是以支持科学的管理和决策为目标的,但 是,在实际的系统设计中,我们深深地感到由于缺乏对其理论和方法的专门研究,许多实 际困难难以得到解决。 本文着重研究了决策系统的广义模型化和经济信息系统的设计方法。从实际的需求出 发,使用系统科学方法同人工智能相结合的手段,提出和研究了包含人在内的决策系统的 有效决策支持理论和方法--决策系统广义模型化。通过对所参加的一个省级经济信息系 统的分析和研究表明,决策系统广义模型化为经济信息系统的设计提供了基础理论和方法, 经济信息系统为决策系统广义模型化提供了一个实现实例。研究表明,系统科学同人工智 能相结合的方法具有强大的生命力,此研究为大系统控制论提供了一个应用研究实例。实 践表明,此研究在实际应用中是可行的。 综述和分析了决策与辅助决策理论及方法的基础,它包括: (1)决策与决策系统; (2)决策行为模式; (3)决策分析及用于管理决策的定量方法; (4)辅助决策理论与 方法。在此基础上,提出了在社会经济决策系统模型化中关于人的决策行为的一种新认识, 决策人在决策活动中是主动的,在决策过程中影响决策者决策过程的因素不仅包括关于社 会经济系统的定量描述,也包括决策者的经验和直觉判断。进而提出了有效决策支持的需 求,即支持在上述认识下的决策过程。 在决策系统广义模型化的研究中,主要使用系统科学的模型化方法同人工智能知识推 理技术相结合的手段,研究了有效决策支持的理论和方法。它包括: (1)决策系统广义 模型的四层递阶结构;(2)基于关系的模块集分析,以及面向决策者模型模块序列构造 原理和面向模型的模块构造原理; (3)基于二层知识表达的模块协调表述方法; (4)基 于协调表述和归结原理的二层递阶模块处理方法。 决策系统是包含人的系统,模糊性是 决策系统中不确定性的主要来源,在这一部分,研究了模糊环境中决策系统广义模型
英文摘要These is a new challege for the decision mode and decision method of our country with the reformation and open of economy, how to utilize scientific method for effectively supporting decision maders in socio-economic systems uner the new system is to be a question for study with important practical meaning. Because the decision maker participates in decision action as a active actor in decision systems, decision making is a complex action. When the active factors of decision maker are considered, or in other words, when the supPosi- tions about decision makers are made close to practical situation for effec- tively supporting decisions, there appear obvious limits in decision theory and method in the past. The aim of national economic information system which is be building is to support scientific management and decision making, but in the practical design of the system, we deeply feel that many practical difficulties are difficult to solve because of lack of particular study for the theory and method of the system. This paper has mainly studicd d general modeling method of decision systems and design method of economic information system. From practical needs, using the method of combining system science method and artificial intelligence we advance a theory and method of effective decision support for decision systems with person --- the general modeling of decision systems. Through the analysis and study for a practical economic information system of a province, it indicates clearly that the general modeling of decision systems provides basic theory and method for the design of economic information system and economic information system provides a practical example for the general modeling of decision systems. The study indicates that the research method by combining system science and artificial intelligence has strong life-force. Practice indicates the study is feasible in practice. The paper has surveyed and studied the bases of the theory and method for decision and aiding decision, it contains : (1) decision and decision systems; (2) decision action modes; (3) decision analysis and other quatitative methods used in management decision; (4) aiding decision theory and method. On the bases, a new understanding about the decision action of people in socio- economic system modeling is advanced, decision makers are active in decision action, the factors which influence the decision processes of decision makers contain not only quatitative descriptions about socio-economic systems but also experiences and intuitive decisions of decision makers. Forward, the needs for effective decision support, that is to support decision process mentioned above, are advanced. In the study of the general modeling of decision systems, the method of combining the modeling method of system science and reasoning technique of AI is mainly used, the theory and method f
语种中文
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/5604
专题毕业生_博士学位论文
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
薛玉炜. 决策系统广义模型化与经济信息系统设计方法研究[D]. 中国科学院自动化研究所. 中国科学院自动化研究所,1988.
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