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Alternative TitleDesign and Analysis of Computational Experiments in Artificial Transportation Systems
Thesis Advisor王飞跃
Degree Grantor中国科学院研究生院
Place of Conferral中国科学院自动化研究所
Degree Discipline控制理论与控制工程
Keyword复杂系统 Acp理论 人工交通系统 计算实验 Complex Systems Acp Approach Artificial Transportation Systems Computational Experiments
Abstract城市交通系统与人类社会活动息息相关,是城市繁荣、有序和高速发展的主要支撑条件,是科学研究的热点领域。在交通研究中,存在的一个主要问题是由于交通系统的复杂性本质、经济、法律、道德等原因而难以对现实交通系统进行实验。人工交通系统应运而生,其基本思想是利用人工社会的理论与方法,通过抽取单个车辆或局部交通行为的基本动态规律,理解交通系统的各种状态和发展特性,以及交通系统各部分之间相互作用所涌现出的复杂交通现象,从而生成现实交通系统的替代版本。在人工交通系统中进行计算实验,可以在几乎无成本、无风险的情况下,以可控制、可重复、可观察的方式研究交通相关问题,为探索交通系统可能出现的行为特性,评估相应交通决策方案创造良好的条件。在人工交通系统的计算实验研究中,如何设计和分析实验是关键科学问题之一,这也正是本论文的研究内容。 本论文从理论基础研究和案例设计与分析两方面开展研究。 在理论基础研究方面,总结了计算实验其思想萌芽、提出、发展的历程。以人工交通系统作为具体对象,对计算实验的设计和分析问题开展研究,阐述了计算实验设计的基本概念,提出了计算实验设计的基本原则及计算实验的一般步骤,将实验设计方法应用于人工交通系统的计算实验设计与分析中。 在案例设计与分析方面,设计了不同的典型案例,研究系统要素及其相互作用,以及系统的整体行为状态和特性,具体地对人工交通系统的三个要素—人、路、环境相关问题进行了分析。首先,设计和分析了人工人口与交通出行的计算实验,提出了从微观和宏观两个层面、空间和时间两个维度对人工人口的交通出行行为进行研究的思路和方法,研究了出行活动的发生与人口相关因素的关系,分析了年龄、性别、出行活动类型等因素对出行活动起始时刻分布的影响。其次,设计和分析了路网形态与流量的计算实验,分析了路网形态对交通运行状况的影响,将极值理论引入人工交通系统的计算实验分析中,研究了路网的最大流量。最后,设计和分析了土地利用的计算实验,提出了因素—响应的人工交通系统计算实验设计和分析方法,研究了居住密度、土地分布类型、吸引程度对交通运行状况的影响,并以土地分布类型、居住密度为例,进一步研究了土地利用的单个因素对交通运行状况的影响。
Other AbstractUrban transportation systems play an important role in human activities. They are indispensible elements for the rapid and sustainable development of a city. Thus, research on traffic system has become a hotspot for years. Nevertheless, one problem that exists in the related studies is that it is always difficult or even infeasible to conduct experiments on real transportation system, due to its complexity nature and other reasons caused by economy, law, and ethic, etc. Artificial transportation systems (ATS) are based on the theories and methods of artificial societies. The main idea of ATS is to gain deep insight into vehicles movements and traffic evolution by extracting basic rules of individual vehicle (or local traffic behavior) and analyzing the complex phenomena emerging from interactions among individuals, further grow artificial transportation systems to be substitution for real transportation system. By conducting computational experiments in ATS, it is applicable to investigate transportation systems in a controllable, repeatable, observable way with little cost and risk. And we can explore the possible travel behaviors and evaluate the relevant decision-making in transportation systems. Thus, it is a valuable topic to study. In the concerned research, the design and analysis of computational experiments is a key matter. And this is what this dissertation focuses on. In this dissertation, the design and analysis of computational experiments in ATS is studied systematically on two aspects: theoretical foundation and specific cases. On the aspect of theoretical foundation, we summarize the developments of computational experiments, especially the state-of-the-art of computational experiments in ATS and the experimental platforms. After introducing the basic concepts, we propose the rules and general procedures of computational experiments, and present the design approaches of computational experiments that can be specifically used in ATS under different experimental scenaries. On the aspect of specific cases, we carry out experimental research to investigate the behaviors of main factors and the characteristics of the whole system. To be concrete, we conduct computational experiments respectively on three main factors (namely, population, network, and environment) of transportation system. Firstly, we design and analyze computational experiments on artificial population and travel behaviors which are related to factor “population”. We propo...
Other Identifier200818014628013
Document Type学位论文
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
欧彦. 人工交通系统的计算实验设计与分析方法研究[D]. 中国科学院自动化研究所. 中国科学院研究生院,2011.
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